{"id":1608,"date":"2026-09-11T13:28:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T16:28:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dexetfs.com.br\/noticias\/ring-the-bell-xcap11-small-caps-juros-fluxo-bolsa-brasileira\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T13:33:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T16:33:58","slug":"xcap11-ring-the-bell-brazil-small-caps-rates-market-flows","status":"publish","type":"noticias","link":"https:\/\/www.dexetfs.com.br\/en\/noticias\/xcap11-ring-the-bell-brazil-small-caps-rates-market-flows\/","title":{"rendered":"XCAP11 Ring the Bell puts Brazilian small caps at the center of the rates and market-flow debate"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"xcap11-xp-asset-small-caps\"

Credit: B3<\/p><\/div>\n

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The Ring the Bell ceremony for XCAP11, XP Asset\u2019s small-cap ETF, became a broader discussion about the current state of Brazil\u2019s equity market. The conversation covered interest rates, historically low equity allocations, foreign investor dominance in recent market flows and the composition issues that can affect traditional small-cap indexes.<\/p>\n

The panel featured Fernando Ferreira, XP\u2019s chief strategist, and Pablo Spyer. Danilo Gabriel, a portfolio manager at XP Asset, later explained the methodology tracked by the ETF and how the index gradually manages companies entering and leaving the small-cap universe.<\/p>\n

Beyond marking a new listing at B3, the event raised a central question for Brazilian equities: after an extended period of high interest rates and market flows concentrated in larger, more liquid stocks, could small caps be positioned for a relative recovery?<\/p>\n

Lower rates could reshape conditions for domestic assets<\/h2>\n

According to Ferreira, the market\u2019s perception of Brazil\u2019s public-debt trajectory will be one of the key variables influencing local asset prices. If investors see the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizing, risk premiums and long-term interest rates could decline.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the market looks ahead and concludes that debt-to-GDP will stop increasing by four percentage points every year, I believe the risk premium could fall significantly, the long end of the yield curve could decline and asset prices could perform well, even in a slower economy,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This issue is particularly relevant for smaller companies. Such businesses are generally more exposed to the domestic economy, more dependent on local credit conditions and more sensitive to changes in the cost of capital. Tightening cycles can therefore weigh disproportionately on the segment, while falling rates may improve the relative backdrop.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"xp-asset-xcap11-fernando-ferreira-xp\"

On the left, Fernando Ferreira. On the right, Pablo Spyer. Credit: B3<\/p><\/div>\n

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Ferreira pointed to the contrasting performance of small and large caps during recent rate cycles. Small caps performed relatively well during the Selic easing cycle that began in 2017 and extended into the pandemic period. When rates increased sharply, the opposite occurred.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe difference is very clear. Small caps perform very well when interest rates are falling. Then, when rates rose sharply, small caps performed much worse than large caps,\u201d Ferreira said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The view presented at the event is that Brazil is approaching the end of a high-rate cycle. Expectations for monetary easing create a more constructive backdrop for companies tied to domestic activity. That does not remove company-specific or macroeconomic risks, but it changes one of the variables that has placed the greatest pressure on the segment.<\/p>\n

An unusual valuation discount<\/h2>\n

Valuation was the second major pillar of the discussion.<\/p>\n

According to Ferreira, both the Ibovespa and Brazilian small caps trade at low valuation multiples, but the relationship between the two groups stands out.<\/p>\n

Smaller companies have historically traded at a premium to the Ibovespa. In theory, they offer greater growth potential, while Brazil\u2019s benchmark contains a significant allocation to commodity companies, which frequently trade at lower multiples.<\/p>\n

Under the conditions discussed at the ceremony, that historical relationship has reversed, with small caps trading below the Ibovespa\u2019s earnings multiple.<\/p>\n

\u201cSmall caps generally trade at a 30% premium to the Ibovespa. Today, small caps are trading at a discount to the Ibovespa,\u201d Ferreira said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A discounted valuation does not guarantee future appreciation. It does, however, help illustrate how far the small-cap universe has fallen behind following a period of high rates, reduced domestic participation in equities and concentration of capital in highly liquid stocks.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou have the combination of a very inexpensive valuation, after the segment fell far behind, and a scenario of declining interest rates over the coming months,\u201d Ferreira said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Greater exposure to Brazil\u2019s domestic economy<\/h2>\n

The panel also addressed the sector composition of the small-cap universe.<\/p>\n

The Ibovespa has significant exposure to oil and gas, mining, utilities and major banks. Brazilian small caps, by comparison, offer greater exposure to domestically oriented sectors such as retail, real estate, construction and sanitation.<\/p>\n

\u201cInvestors like small caps precisely because they provide exposure to domestic sectors within the stock market,\u201d Ferreira said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This composition helps explain why small caps can react more sharply to expectations for interest rates, credit availability, household income and economic activity in Brazil. It also means that choosing between large and small companies changes more than the average market capitalization of a portfolio. It materially changes its sector exposure.<\/p>\n

That sensitivity can be positive during an improving domestic cycle, but it also leaves the segment more exposed to economic slowdowns, tighter financial conditions and deterioration in credit markets.<\/p>\n

Why foreign flows have favored larger companies<\/h2>\n

Interest rates and valuations alone do not explain the relative performance of small caps. The source of market flows also matters.<\/p>\n

According to Ferreira, foreign investors have played an important role in Brazilian equity pricing in recent years. This capital tends to favor large, liquid stocks that can absorb sizable orders.<\/p>\n

\u201cPart of the reason small caps have lagged the Ibovespa has a lot to do with foreign investor flows. Foreign investors do not buy small caps. They buy liquid stocks,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Smaller companies depend more heavily on local investors, including individuals, domestic equity funds and Brazilian institutions. When these groups reduce their equity exposure in favor of fixed income, the impact on small caps can be disproportionate.<\/p>\n

The outlook discussed at the event therefore depends not only on rate cuts, but also on a potential reallocation of Brazilian household and institutional portfolios.<\/p>\n

Ferreira said Brazil\u2019s investment market currently totals approximately BRL 12 trillion, while less than BRL 1 trillion is invested in stocks. Equity exposure represents approximately 6% of investor assets, compared with an estimated historical average of 8% to 10%.<\/p>\n

Based on calculations presented by the strategist, a return to the historical allocation range could direct BRL 500 billion to BRL 600 billion toward equities and related risk assets. This was presented as a conditional estimate based on an equity recovery and actual investor reallocation, not as a guaranteed forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen Brazilian investors return to the stock market, they generally invest in small caps or buy funds that invest in small caps. If domestic investors come back, we see the potential for strong flows into the small-cap segment,\u201d Ferreira said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

International diversification remains part of the discussion<\/h2>\n

The panel also expanded the conversation beyond Brazilian assets.<\/p>\n

Pablo Spyer asked whether current exchange-rate conditions could create an opportunity to accelerate the international diversification of local portfolios. Ferreira responded that Brazilian investors hold less than 5% of their assets abroad, while XP\u2019s allocation team recommends international exposure of at least 15%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"pablo-spyer-xp-investimentos-xcap11-small-caps\"

Credit: B3<\/p><\/div>\n

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Ferreira acknowledged that Brazil\u2019s high CDI rate may encourage investors to postpone diversification as they wait for a more favorable currency level. In his view, however, gradually building the allocation is more practical than attempting to identify a single ideal exchange rate.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is very difficult to identify the best exchange rate. The best approach is to divide the allocation into several tranches and make recurring investments, rather than trying to find the perfect moment,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The internationalization discussion does not conflict with the argument for a potential recovery in domestic equities. Instead, it separates tactical market views from the structural construction of a diversified portfolio. The panel described international exposure as a long-term allocation trend, while the small-cap discussion focused on specific conditions involving Brazilian rates, valuations and investor flows.<\/p>\n

The index distortion XCAP11 seeks to address<\/h2>\n

When presenting the strategy behind XCAP11, Danilo Gabriel focused on a methodological issue: how companies enter and exit traditional small-cap indexes.<\/p>\n

The problem can occur in both directions. A company that loses market value and is downgraded from the mid- or large-cap universe may enter a small-cap index with a significant weight. Because traditional indexes are weighted by market capitalization, the company can enter near the top of the eligible range even while facing weaker operations, declining profits or selling pressure.<\/p>\n

Conversely, a successful small-cap company may appreciate, gain scale and move into a larger market-cap category. Under a conventional methodology, it may then leave the small-cap index immediately. Investors can therefore lose exposure just as the company\u2019s growth and market relevance are accelerating.<\/p>\n

\u201cA company experiencing a difficult operating period can enter with a very significant weight. On the other side, small caps that are performing well stand out, and when they move from small to mid or large cap, they leave the index entirely,\u201d Gabriel said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This asymmetry, described by the manager as a form of adverse selection, informed the development of the index tracked by XCAP11.<\/p>\n

A three-stage transition<\/h2>\n

The methodology developed by XP Asset and B3 seeks to smooth both sides of the process.<\/p>\n

When a company enters the small-cap universe, the index does not immediately assume its full market-cap weight. The transition takes place over three stages, aligned with four-month rebalancing cycles. The index initially incorporates one-third of the weight. If the company remains eligible, its participation increases during the next rebalancing cycles until it reaches the full allocation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen a descending company enters, we do not take 100% of its weight. We start with one-third. Over three cycles, if it remains in the small-cap universe, we reach 100% of the weight,\u201d Gabriel explained.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

\"danilo-gabriel-cfa-xp-asset-xcap11\"

Danilo Gabriel, portfolio manager at XP Asset<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

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The process works similarly when a company leaves, but with the objective of retaining partial exposure to the index\u2019s \u201crising stars.\u201d If a company grows and moves into the mid- or large-cap universe, its removal also occurs in stages.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen it leaves the small-cap universe and becomes a mid or large cap, instead of removing the entire company, we release one-third, then two-thirds and remove the remainder at the final rebalancing,\u201d the manager said.<\/p>\n

In practical terms, the index seeks to limit immediate exposure to companies entering the category after a negative trajectory, while retaining exposure for longer to businesses leaving the category because of appreciation.<\/p>\n

DEX\u2019s previous coverage of the XCAP11 launch<\/a><\/span> reported that the methodology also seeks to reduce turnover and the impact of rebalancing. The article listed an annual management fee of 0.30% and stated that revenue generated through securities lending is fully returned to the ETF\u2019s assets.<\/p>\n

A methodological response, not an elimination of risk<\/h2>\n

Historical studies presented by XP Asset indicated that the new index outperformed the traditional small-cap benchmark. DEX\u2019s previous coverage reported that, according to the manager, B3 data showed a difference of approximately 2.5% per year. As with any backtest, historical results do not guarantee future performance.<\/p>\n

At the Ring the Bell ceremony, Gabriel highlighted the index\u2019s retrospective performance during the positive Brazilian equity cycle from 2017 to 2021. He presented the comparison as a historical reference and an expectation, rather than a return commitment.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuring the bull market from 2017 to 2021, small caps performed well, and in our backtest, the XCAP index performed even better. We hope the future repeats the past in that respect,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The methodology attempts to address an identified rebalancing distortion, but it does not remove the risks inherent in small-cap investing. Smaller companies can have lower liquidity, higher volatility and greater sensitivity to domestic credit and economic conditions. There is also no assurance that companies retained in the index will continue to appreciate or that those gradually admitted will reverse a negative operating trajectory.<\/p>\n

XCAP11 therefore arrives as the market begins to monitor three factors simultaneously: discounted valuations, expectations for lower rates and the possibility that Brazilian investors will gradually return to equities.<\/p>\n

The Ring the Bell discussion showed that the small-cap case does not depend on a single catalyst. It rests on the potential convergence of macroeconomic conditions, valuations, investment flows and an index methodology designed to create smoother transitions.<\/p>\n

For additional details on the product and its original market launch, read: XP Asset launches XCAP11, a small-cap ETF designed to reduce distortions in the traditional index<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Executives from XP and XP Asset discussed why Brazilian small caps have lagged, how lower interest rates and renewed domestic investor flows could change the outlook, and how XCAP11\u2019s underlying index seeks to reduce distortions found in traditional small-cap benchmarks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":1603,"template":"","categories":[57,56],"tag_noticias":[41],"class_list":["post-1608","noticias","type-noticias","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interviews","category-launches","tag_noticias-xp-asset"],"yoast_head":"\nXCAP11 Ring the Bell puts Brazilian small caps at the center of the rates and market-flow debate - DEX | Portal de ETFs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dexetfs.com.br\/en\/noticias\/xcap11-ring-the-bell-brazil-small-caps-rates-market-flows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"XCAP11 Ring the Bell puts Brazilian small caps at the center of the rates and market-flow debate - 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