{"id":2373,"date":"2026-10-06T16:40:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T19:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dexetfs.com.br\/noticias\/juros-prefixados-5pre11-ntnf11-6-outubro-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T22:11:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T01:11:40","slug":"long-term-rates-fall-fixed-income-etfs-rally-october-2026","status":"publish","type":"noticias","link":"https:\/\/www.dexetfs.com.br\/en\/noticias\/long-term-rates-fall-fixed-income-etfs-rally-october-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-Term Rates Fall Further Following Fixed-Rate Rally; 5PRE11 and NTNF11 Highlight Drivers"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Credit: iStock<\/p><\/div>\n

The interest rate market continued to reprice intermediate and long-term maturities this Tuesday, October 6, following Monday’s sharp compression in risk premiums. At 12:58 PM, the January 2029 DI contract traded at 12.47%, down from 12.65% at the previous close. The January 2031 contract stood at 12.53%, compared to 12.70%. These represented additional drops of 18 and 17 basis points, respectively.<\/p>\n

The short end of the curve moved in the opposite direction. At 12:57 PM, the January 2027 DI was trading at 13.435%, slightly above the previous close of 13.413%. The divergence across yield curve segments is key: the market reduced the premium required to hold longer-term risk without driving a uniform rate cut across all maturities.<\/p>\n

This movement extended the favorable environment for fixed-rate ETFs observed on Monday. 5PRE11 rose 4.86%, NTNF11 gained 3.89%, 3PRE11 advanced 3.37%, and IRFM11 appreciated 2.46%. The dispersion reflects varying exposures to duration, underlying bonds, and interest rate sensitivity. Expectations of tighter fiscal discipline following the first-round election reduced risk premiums on longer-dated maturities, boosting the value of fixed payouts locked into portfolio holdings.<\/p>\n

5PRE11 (Ita\u00fa Asset): +4.86% on October 5<\/h2>\n

5PRE11 registered the largest gain among the four analyzed products, accumulating a 6.53% return over the one-month window through Monday. Its benchmark is a portfolio of LTNs (zero-coupon treasury bills) and NTN-Fs (fixed-rate treasury bonds) designed to maintain an average maturity of around five years upon rebalancing. Portfolio average duration stands at approximately 4.5 years.<\/p>\n

Tuesday’s further decline in the 2031 DI contract maintained a favorable backdrop for the yield curve segment relevant to this strategy.<\/p>\n

\n

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Want to follow discussions on indices, strategies, and the ETF market? INDEX 2026, DEX’s annual event, takes place on November 12 in S\u00e3o Paulo. Secure your spot<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

NTNF11 (Investo, co-managed with V8 Capital): +3.89% on October 5<\/h2>\n

NTNF11 advanced 3.89% on Monday and stood up 4.95% over one month. Disclosed holdings as of October 2 indicated a 100% benchmark allocation to NTN-F bonds maturing on January 1, 2031. This breakdown provides a clear rationale: the fund was fully exposed to a fixed-rate bond paying semi-annual coupons with principal maturing in 2031\u2014a segment that experienced a sharp reduction in market-demanded yields.<\/p>\n

The January 2031 DI dropped 122 basis points on Monday and fell again on Tuesday. While NTN-F bonds trade at their own rates, the drop in futures contracts for this horizon supported the rally in fixed payouts. Semi-annual coupons accelerate cash flow compared to zero-coupon bonds that pay only at maturity; hence, a 2031 maturity date and a five-year duration sensitivity are not equivalent measures.<\/p>\n

3PRE11 (Galapagos Capital): +3.37% on October 5<\/h2>\n

3PRE11 gained 3.37% on Monday and accumulated 4.58% over one month. The strategy combines LTNs and NTN-Fs to maintain a target average maturity of three years upon rebalancing. Teva’s factsheet indicated a duration of 3.0 years as of October 2. This lower sensitivity relative to 5PRE11 explains its less intense reaction to the previous session’s sharp rate drop.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, further compression in the January 2029 DI reinforced a favorable environment for the belly of the curve. Portfolio appreciation stems from mark-to-market gains on fixed-rate bonds alongside accrued interest earned over time.<\/p>\n

IRFM11 (Ita\u00fa Asset): +2.46% on October 5<\/h2>\n

IRFM11 rose 2.46% on Monday, with gains of 3.77% over one month and 11.98% year-to-date. The IRF-M P2 index brings together LTNs and NTN-Fs, weighted by market liquidity and outstanding volume, with rules maintaining an average maturity equal to or greater than 720 days. The portfolio spreads exposure across maturities rather than concentrating in a single issue or matching 5PRE11’s duration profile.<\/p>\n

This diversification causes the fund to capture movements across different curve segments. Tuesday provided a concrete example: the 2027 DI rose slightly, while 2029 and 2031 contracts declined. For a multi-maturity portfolio, the net impact depends on the combined effect of these shifts across the bond cash flows.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Informational content. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Intermediate and long-term interest rates continued to decline following Monday’s sharp repricing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2359,"template":"","categories":[93],"tag_noticias":[39,38,40],"class_list":["post-2373","noticias","type-noticias","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brazil","tag_noticias-galapagos-capital","tag_noticias-investo","tag_noticias-itau-asset"],"yoast_head":"\nLong-Term Rates Fall Further Following Fixed-Rate Rally; 5PRE11 and NTNF11 Highlight Drivers - DEX | Portal de ETFs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Curva segue em queda nos prazos intermedi\u00e1rios e longos. 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