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Ibovespa ETFs rise in 2026, but small caps and high beta lag behind

Brazilian equity ETFs reach 2026 with widely divergent year-to-date performances. Funds closest to the traditional Ibovespa remain in positive territory, backed by higher-liquidity stocks and expectations of a continuing Selic easing cycle. On the other end, strategies with higher exposure to small caps, more broadly distributed stock weights, and higher-beta equities continue to face greater headwinds.

Fund flows also present an uneven picture. The group recorded net outflows of R$ 1.524 billion for the year, driven primarily by BOVA11, which concentrates the largest net redemptions among listed ETFs. At the same time, funds such as DIVO11, SMAL11, LVOL11, and NSDV11 continue to attract net inflows in 2026, indicating that a subset of investors is still seeking specific strategies within the Brazilian stock exchange.

The domestic backdrop combines gradual monetary policy easing, inflation still running above the target center, and moderate economic growth. Copom reduced the Selic rate to 14% per year in its fourth consecutive cut, but maintained a cautious stance regarding future steps. Market projections continue to point to an IPCA of 5.02%, GDP growth of 1.98%, the US dollar at R$ 5.20, and an end-of-2026 Selic rate of 13.75%.

This backdrop favored a selective recovery in the Brazilian stock market. The Ibovespa remains positive for the year, even after corrective episodes linked to electoral uncertainty, interest rate doubts, US dollar fluctuations, and lower global risk appetite. For ETFs, index composition made all the difference: funds more concentrated in larger companies captured the stock market’s advance better, while more diversified or domestic-cycle-sensitive strategies lagged behind.

BOVA11: +3,67%

BOVA11, managed by BlackRock, tracks a portfolio linked to the Ibovespa and concentrates exposure on the largest and most liquid companies on B3. The ETF accumulates a 3.67% gain in 2026, with assets under management (AUM) of R$ 13.047 billion, but records net outflows of R$ 2.667 billion for the year.

This performance mirrors the positive trajectory of the Ibovespa year-to-date. The Selic cuts reinforced the perception that the monetary easing cycle remains underway, albeit at a gradual pace, which improved the environment for domestic risk assets. Still, the net outflows show that some investors took profits or adjusted allocations even with the fund in positive territory. The still-elevated benchmark interest rate and recent stock market volatility help explain this more cautious stance toward the primary Ibovespa ETF.

DIVO11: +2,19%

DIVO11, managed by Itaú, replicates a strategy focused on dividend-paying stocks. The ETF accumulates a 2.19% gain in 2026, with R$ 2.249 billion in AUM and net inflows of R$ 839 million for the year.

The strategy found support in more consolidated companies, typically associated with stronger cash flow generation and dividend payouts. This profile helped the fund remain in positive territory while attracting capital year-to-date. In an environment where fixed income still competes fiercely for investor attention, the positive flow suggests demand for equity strategies with a more defensive bias and a dividend focus.

LVOL11: -0,05%

LVOL11, from Nu Asset, follows a low-volatility strategy within the Ibovespa universe. The ETF registers a slight decline of 0.05% year-to-date in 2026, with R$ 70.78 million in AUM and net inflows of R$ 35 million for the year.

The proposition to reduce fluctuations helped contain part of the volatility, but was not enough to push the fund into positive territory. Nevertheless, net flows indicate new capital entering, aligned with the search for less aggressive strategies within equities. With inflation above the target center and the Selic rate still high, investors remained selective while maintaining interest in exposures that can better weather periods of instability.

NSDV11: -0,20%

NSDV11, also from Nu Asset, combines Ibovespa exposure with a focus on dividend companies. The ETF accumulates a 0.20% decline in 2026, with R$ 87.98 million in AUM and net inflows of R$ 7 million for the year.

The near-flat result reflects the market’s balance this year. On one hand, dividend-paying companies preserved some appeal amid uncertainty. On the other hand, a still-high Selic rate and Central Bank caution limited a stronger migration toward equities. The net inflows, though modest, show that investors have not abandoned the dividend thesis, but are being more discerning in their strategy selection.

B3BR11: -1,31%

B3BR11, managed by Itaú, seeks to track the Ibovespa B3 BR+ Index, which measures the average performance of the most tradable and representative assets among stocks, units, and BDRs of Brazilian companies listed on B3. For BDRs, the index considers assets whose underlying shares have their primary listing on US exchanges.

The ETF accumulates a 1.31% decline in 2026, with R$ 7.87 million in AUM and net outflows of R$ 3 million for the year. The broader index exposure failed to keep pace with funds closer to the traditional Ibovespa. In a year of concentrated recovery, assets more sensitive to the external environment, exchange rates, and domestic cost of capital experienced more irregular performance. Net outflows reinforce a cautious stance toward broader strategies in a market still characterized by high interest rates, above-target inflation, and political volatility.

NBOV11: -1,34%

NBOV11, from Nu Asset, also tracks a strategy linked to the Ibovespa B3 BR+ Index. The ETF records a 1.34% decline year-to-date in 2026, with R$ 11.67 million in AUM and net outflows of R$ 18 million for the year.

The result highlights the importance of index composition in 2026. While funds more concentrated in mega-caps captured the stock market’s rise better, strategies with a broader universe faced greater difficulty. The net outflows align with this weaker performance and show that investors have been scaling back exposure to alternative strategies to the traditional Ibovespa. Projected high Selic rates through the end of the year keep the market selective, limiting room for a generalized rally in risk assets.

CAPE11: -1,39%

CAPE11, managed by BlackRock, tracks the Bovespa B3 BR+ Cap 5% Index, which starts from the Ibovespa B3 BR+ universe but caps issuer weight at 5% of net assets. The goal is to reduce concentration in a few large companies and offer a more diversified exposure to the Brazilian equity market, including BDRs of Brazilian companies with shares issued abroad.

The ETF accumulates a 1.39% decline in 2026, with R$ 20.30 million in AUM and flat net flows for the year. Capping issuer weights reduced the influence of the largest companies—the exact drivers that supported the stock market during a selective recovery year. With interest rates still high, projected inflation above the target center, and moderate growth, the index’s higher diversification was insufficient to yield positive returns.

EWBZ11: -8,52%

EWBZ11, managed by BlackRock, follows an equal-weight strategy across the Bovespa BR+ universe. The ETF accumulates an 8.52% drop in 2026, with R$ 17.84 million in AUM and flat net flows for the year.

The negative performance illustrates how a more balanced weighting across stocks weighed heavily in a year driven by concentrated gains. Unlike funds closer to the traditional Ibovespa, an equal-weight strategy relies heavily on a broad-based stock market rally. That movement has yet to consolidate amid high interest rates, moderate growth, and above-target inflation.

SMAL11: -11,07%

SMAL11, managed by BlackRock, tracks the small-cap segment of the Brazilian stock market. The ETF accumulates an 11.07% decline in 2026, with R$ 1.811 billion in AUM and net inflows of R$ 291 million for the year.

Small caps were penalized by an environment that continues to impose significant constraints on smaller companies. Even with the Selic rate falling, the cost of capital remains high, credit is expensive, and domestic growth prospects are modest.

However, the net inflows show that some investors are positioning in assets that are more sensitive to an eventual economic recovery. The negative performance indicates this thesis has not yet reflected in prices this year, but positive flows suggest interest in front-running a broader stock market recovery.

HIGH11: -21,56%

HIGH11, from Nu Asset, follows a high-beta strategy within the Ibovespa, focusing on stocks with higher sensitivity to market movements. The ETF accumulates a 21.56% decline in 2026, with R$ 22.09 million in AUM and net outflows of R$ 7 million for the year.

The strategy was the most heavily penalized among listed ETFs. In a market marked by high interest rates, above-target inflation, and episodes of heightened risk aversion, volatile stocks suffered more than the broader index. While the Selic easing cycle brought some relief to equities, Copom’s cautious stance and external uncertainties continued to restrict appetite for higher-beta assets.

Net outflows reflect the fund’s weaker performance and reinforce market preference for liquidity and resilient balance sheets. The Ibovespa’s rise in 2026 did not eliminate the risk of pullbacks, and recent moves demonstrate that more aggressive strategies remain more vulnerable to rapid shifts in investor sentiment.

What is behind this difference in 2026?

The performance of Brazilian ETFs in 2026 demonstrates that the stock market recovery has been selective in terms of both returns and fund flows. BOVA11 and DIVO11 stayed in positive territory but took opposite paths regarding inflows: the former concentrated redemptions, while the latter recorded substantial net inflows. Meanwhile, SMAL11 fell sharply yet received capital, signaling that a portion of investors is still seeking exposure to an eventual recovery among smaller companies.

The pace of Selic rate cuts remains the central factor for upcoming moves. The start of the monetary easing cycle improved the climate for equities, but projections still indicate elevated interest rates through the end of 2026. As long as inflation remains above the target center and growth stays moderate, ETFs that depend heavily on small caps, equal weighting, or high-beta stocks are likely to face a more challenging environment than funds concentrated in the stock exchange’s largest companies.

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