ETF Performance on August 10, 2026: Geopolitics and FX Impact
The August 10, 2026 trading session was heavily marked by geopolitical events and the reassessment of macroeconomic expectations, creating a risk-off environment that directly reflected on the pricing of major ETFs in the market.
Global uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East, were the primary catalysts of the day. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions involving Iran triggered an approximate 5% jump in oil prices (with Brent crude surpassing $87). This geopolitical stress sparked an immediate flight to safety, which helps explain the standout performance of GOLD11-BR, leading the gains in our sample with an impressive 1.52% appreciation.
The Weight of the Dollar and Currency-Hedged Dynamics
In the foreign exchange market, the commercial US dollar closed firmly higher, around R$ 5.11 (an advance of over 0.50%), reflecting both external caution and domestic adjustments. The DOLB11-BR ETF accurately tracked this movement, posting a 0.51% gain.
On the domestic front, the release of the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin (Boletim Focus) showed the sixth consecutive drop in inflation projections (IPCA), retreating to 5.02% for 2026. However, the Selic rate estimate remained anchored at 13.75% for year-end, keeping the interest rate differential on the radar of local investors, while the Brazilian stock market (Ibovespa) traded slightly lower.
The appreciation of the US currency was decisive for the performance decoupling between hedged and unhedged international strategies. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index retreated 0.1% for the day, pulling back from its all-time highs. Looking at the local ETFs that track the index, the structural difference is evident:
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SPXR11-BR, which features a currency hedge, captured the actual downward movement of the US stock market and closed in the red at -0.07%.
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SPXI11-BR, lacking currency protection, fully absorbed the dollar’s rise against the Brazilian real, reversing the original index’s decline to deliver a positive return of 0.41%.
This behavior reinforces the role of foreign exchange as the main shock absorber or detractor of returns during periods of risk aversion, highlighting how geopolitical tension can directly affect hedged vehicles.
Technology and Global Exposure
The technology sector also faced pressure in the US. The Nasdaq index retreated 0.3% on August 10, influenced by the pullback of giants like Intel, which fell over 4% following news that it might sell $15 billion in stock to fund artificial intelligence investments. Despite this adverse external backdrop, the exchange rate was enough to keep the NASD11-BR ETF in the green, closing with a 0.52% gain in Brazil.
Other global exposure indices leaned on this same FX strength to close the session in positive territory. WRLD11-BR (+0.39%), PKIN11-BR (+0.31%), and IVWO11-BR (+0.23%) reflected the favorable conversion of hard-currency-denominated assets on a day when the global market paused to assess the worsening of global supply chains and inflation.
