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Brazilian equities diverge from global markets as BOVA11 leads the session

brazil-etf-bova11-maiores-altas-setembro

Credit: Magnific

 

BOVA11 gained 1.57% and led the group, while every international and currency ETF ended lower. SPXR11 and ARGE11 declined 0.50% and 0.54%, respectively. DOLB11 lost 0.80%, PKIN11 fell 0.87%, IVWO11 declined 1.14%, SPXI11 dropped 1.16% and WRLD11 ranked last with a 1.31% loss.

The results reflected a clear divergence between Brazil and international markets. The Ibovespa advanced 1.20% to 187,367 points after reaching an intraday high of 189,488. Brazil’s election outlook, lower interest-rate futures and higher oil prices supported the move. The US dollar declined 0.86% to approximately BRL 5.09.

In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.58%, the Nasdaq declined 0.32% and the Dow Jones lost 1.18%. Brent crude advanced to $97.92 per barrel, increasing inflation concerns ahead of US price data. The 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.81%.

BOVA11 (BlackRock): +1.57%

BOVA11 captured the advance in Brazil’s largest listed companies. Petrobras, banks, mining companies and utilities supported a portfolio with significant exposure to those sectors.

Petrobras common shares finished the session up 2.36%, while preferred shares also ranked among the largest positive contributors to the Ibovespa. PRIO, BTG Pactual and WEG appeared among the positive highlights, while CSN Mineração gained 1.97% and Cemig rose 3.91%.

Oil prices were decisive for producers. Brent crude gained 0.95% to $97.92 after reaching $99.45, while WTI advanced 1.69% to $93.03. The move reflected rising supply risks associated with tensions in the Middle East.

Lower domestic risk premiums added support to the index. The election poll released in the previous session increased demand for Brazilian blue chips as the dollar and interest-rate futures moved lower. BOVA11 finished 2.88 percentage points ahead of WRLD11, the largest gap in the ranking.

The ETF is up 9.10% for the month, 16.96% for the year and 33.13% over 12 months.

SPXR11 (Itaú Asset): -0.50% and SPXI11 (Itaú Asset): -1.16%

SPXR11 and SPXI11 track the S&P 500 but differ in their currency exposure. SPXR11 uses a structure that hedges movements between the US dollar and the Brazilian real. SPXI11 incorporates both US equity returns and currency fluctuations.

The S&P 500 lost 0.58%, pressured by higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and caution ahead of inflation data. Apple, Nvidia and JPMorgan were among the major companies that ended the session lower.

SPXR11’s 0.50% decline remained close to the US index’s loss. In SPXI11, the weaker dollar added a second negative component and increased the decline to 1.16%. The 0.66-percentage-point difference demonstrates the impact of currency protection during the session.

SPXR11 is down 0.66% for the month but remains up 18.09% for the year and 29.28% over 12 months. SPXI11 has declined 0.79% for the month while remaining up 4.05% for the year and 11.70% over 12 months.

ARGE11 (Investo): -0.54%

ARGE11 declined 0.54% despite the S&P Merval’s 1.36% gain in Argentine pesos. The divergence reflects the fact that the ETF tracks a basket of Argentine ADRs traded in the United States rather than directly replicating the local index in pesos.

The portfolio was concentrated in YPF at 19.99%, Grupo Financiero Galicia at 16.91%, Ternium at 13.74% and Pampa Energía at 12.06%. Energy represented 35.56% of the portfolio, financial services accounted for 31.27% and basic materials made up 16.11%.

In Argentina’s local market, YPF gained 1.07%, Banco Macro advanced 2.30%, Central Puerto rose 1.22%, Grupo Supervielle gained 1.93% and Ternium added 0.14%. These moves lifted the Merval to 3,075,982 points.

ARGE11’s negative return shows that gains in Buenos Aires did not fully transfer to the B3-listed ETF. ADR trading in the United States, currency conversion and the fund index’s specific composition produced a different result from the local Argentine market.

The ETF is up 1.33% for the month but down 3.36% for the year. It remains up 55.41% over 12 months.

DOLB11 (BTG Asset): -0.80%

DOLB11 followed the decline in the US currency. The commercial dollar fell 0.86% to approximately BRL 5.09 and reached an intraday low near BRL 5.07.

The Brazilian real benefited from higher local equity prices, lower domestic risk premiums and declining interest-rate futures. These factors outweighed the external pressure from higher oil prices and elevated Treasury yields.

DOLB11’s decline also helps explain the gap between hedged and unhedged international ETFs. The fund is up 0.53% for the month but remains down 3.98% for the year and 1.44% over 12 months.

PKIN11 (Bradesco Asset): -0.87%

PKIN11 declined 0.87%. The ETF tracks the CSI 300 and concentrates its exposure in large companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Chinese markets delivered mixed results. The Shanghai Composite advanced 0.27%, while the Shenzhen index gained 1.91%. September CSI 300 futures, however, declined 0.41% to 4,543.2 points.

The weaker US dollar against the Brazilian real added pressure to the B3-listed Chinese exposure. This currency effect helps explain why PKIN11 declined even as part of China’s equity market finished higher.

The fund is down 2.53% for the month and 6.40% for the year. It remains up 0.71% over 12 months.

IVWO11 (Investo): -1.14%

IVWO11 lost 1.14%. The portfolio includes thousands of emerging-market companies, with its largest geographical allocations in Taiwan, China and India.

Taiwan represented 30.80% of the portfolio, China accounted for 27.60% and India made up 17.00%. Taiwan Semiconductor was the largest individual holding at 14.93%, followed by Tencent, Alibaba and MediaTek.

International performance was mixed. Chinese indexes advanced, but the Nifty 50 fell 0.50%, the Sensex lost 1.23% and the Kospi declined 0.58%. The stronger Brazilian real added pressure when the portfolio was converted into local currency.

The larger loss compared with PKIN11 shows that emerging-market diversification did not provide protection during the session. Declines in India and South Korea, combined with the currency effect, outweighed the positive contribution from parts of the Chinese market.

IVWO11 is up 1.31% for the month. Year-to-date and 12-month returns were not available in the dataset.

WRLD11 (Investo): -1.31%

WRLD11 posted the largest decline in the group, losing 1.31%. The portfolio invests in the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF and provides exposure to approximately 9,700 companies, although the United States represents about 60.8% of the allocation.

Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor were among the fund’s largest positions. Technology represented approximately 28.7% of the exposure, followed by financial services and industrials.

Declines in US equities affected the largest portion of the portfolio. Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany also finished lower, while gains in China and parts of Europe were insufficient to offset those losses.

The currency effect increased the decline. Since WRLD11 does not hedge exposure against the Brazilian real, the weaker US dollar reduced the local-currency value of its international holdings. The fund trailed SPXR11 by 0.81 percentage point, as currency protection limited the latter’s loss.

WRLD11 is down 0.28% for the month but remains up 5.51% for the year and 12.79% over 12 months.

 


Exclusive DEX PRO data. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in, buy or sell any asset.

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